BBM Magazine Issue-Sayı: 45 July/August - Temmuz/Ağustos 2021

72 SPECIAL COVER • ÖZEL DOSYA BBM / TEMMUZ - AĞUSTOS 2021 • JULY - AUGUST 2021 Retail stores also saw their sales of fresh bakery prod- ucts falling over 2020, but less dramatically than food- service sectors: modern retailers were favoured as consumer preferred one-stop shopping and small retail stores have benefited from consumers’ preference of neighbourhood outlets. At European level there has been a drop of -7% in fresh bakery retail sales in 2020, and down to -28% for the foodservice sectors. During 2021, under the base case scenario the foodservice sector is expected to gradu- ally recover back to 2019 levels thanks to progressive reopening's. The situation is expected to be almost close to normal by 4Q2021 and should recover in 2022. The COVID-19 crisis will have however longer-term im- pact in fresh bakery product distribution: • The development of click & collect, on-line shopping and home deliveries will continue in the near future, in- cluding for fresh bakery products, which until then had been little concerned by digitalisation. • The potential permanent closure of many restaurants, the continuation of remote working and the recovery of travels will affect the recovery of the foodservice sectors. Fresh bakery product supply strategies have been reconsidered The COVID-19 crisis has also had an impact on fresh bakery product supply strategies. During lock- down, the use of bake-off increased to the detriment of scratch baking on the premises, which faced prob- lems of labour shortages and new sanitary constraints. Fresh bakery products deliveries (for resale) have de- creased during lockdown, due to the difficulties of ensuring daily deliveries. However, in some countries new opportunities have emerged for industrial fresh products. At a European level, Gira’s calculations for 2020 indicate a 15% decrease in artisanal fresh bakery product production (artisan bakers, modern retailers’ in-store bakeries and restaurants), whereas industrial production (packaged, fresh and bake-off products) has only seen a 5% reduction. According to Gira interviews, on the one hand, many channels are determined to re- sume with their initial pre-crisis supply meth- ods with the “new normal” situation. On the other hand, channels who started using bake- off during the crisis are likely to continue to use those types of products, at least for part of their supplies. While retailers and caterers have expressed their Perakende mağazaları da 2020'de taze unlu mamul satışlarının düştüğünü gördü, ancak bu durum gıda hiz- meti sektörlerinden daha az çarpıcıydı: modern pera- kendeciler, tüketicinin tercih ettiği tek noktadan alışveriş olarak tercih edildi ve küçük perakende mağazaları ise tüketicilerin mahallelerindeki satış mağazalarını tercih et- mesinden yararlandı. Avrupa düzeyinde, 2020'de taze unlu mamul peraken- de satışlarında %7'lik bir düşüş, yemek hizmeti sektör- lerinde ise %28'e varan bir düşüş oldu. 2021 boyunca, temel senaryo kapsamında, aşamalı yeniden açılmalar sayesinde gıda hizmeti sektörünün kademeli olarak 2019 seviyelerine geri dönmesi bekleniyor. Durumun 2021'in 4. çeyreğinde neredeyse normale yakın olması ve 2022'de de tamamen düzelmesi bekleniyor. Ancak COVID-19 krizinin taze unlu mamul dağıtımı üze- rinde daha uzun vadeli bir etkisi olacaktır: • O zamana kadar dijitalleşmeyle pek ilgilenmeyen taze unlu mamuller de dahil olmak üzere, tıkla ve topla, online alışveriş ve eve teslimatların gelişimi yakın gele- cekte devam edecektir. • Birçok restoranın muhtemel kalıcı kapanması, uzak-